The Coil Report — Desk

2 top watches, 3 on the edge, 8 still coiling — in plain English.

🚦 Market check: yellow light

The market's still up but showing cracks. Translation: be patient. Watch the list below, but this isn't a week to chase anything.

SPY $762.38 (50-day $750.94, 200-day $707.13), 5 distribution days.

📐 Sizing framework

The risk ceiling isn't fixed — it moves with the market itself. When the regime is healthy, the ceiling sits at its widest; when distribution days stack up or the tape turns choppy, the same ceiling tightens automatically, so your maximum exposure shrinks right along with the market's own reliability, whether your account is five figures or eight.

📊 Today's regime read

5 distribution days is enough to keep the bar high, and breadth is only fair (59% of the universe above its 50-day). Treat tonight's list as a watchlist to build from, not a queue to act on all at once — let the levels do the confirming.

🗺 Sector rotation

Which sectors are actually leading vs SPY — not opinion, just 1-month and 3-month relative strength, ranked.

1. Healthcare (XLV) — 1M +6.2%, 3M +14.3% vs SPY 2. Energy (XLE) — 1M +5.7%, 3M +3.8% vs SPY 3. Financial Services (XLF) — 1M -0.4%, 3M +7.4% vs SPY 4. Basic Materials (XLB) — 1M +1.1%, 3M +2.6% vs SPY 5. Industrials (XLI) — 1M -1.5%, 3M +2.4% vs SPY 6. Technology (XLK) — 1M -0.4%, 3M +0.5% vs SPY 7. Real Estate (XLRE) — 1M -1.9%, 3M -1.4% vs SPY 8. Consumer Defensive (XLP) — 1M -0.9%, 3M -3.1% vs SPY 9. Consumer Cyclical (XLY) — 1M +0.3%, 3M -3.9% vs SPY 10. Communication Services (XLC) — 1M -0.6%, 3M -7.5% vs SPY 11. Utilities (XLU) — 1M -6.7%, 3M -4.5% vs SPY